With the slowing and the stock market reeling, there is
greater agreement among Republicans and Democrats that strengthening the
nation's economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress in the
coming year. By contrast, partisan differences over the importance of other
domestic issues -- such as dealing with global warming, helping the poor and
providing health insurance to the uninsured -- have all increased substantially
over the past year.
As President Bush prepares for his final State of the Union
address on Jan. 28, opinions about his administration's legacy, already fairly
negative, have declined further. Fully 59% say the Bush administration's
failures will outweigh its accomplishments, while just 28% believe the Bush
administration will be remembered more for its accomplishments. A year ago, a
smaller majority (53%) believed the administration's failures would be more
enduring than its successes.
The annual survey on the public's policy agenda shows that
substantially more Republicans and independents view strengthening the economy
as a top priority than did so in January 2007. Partisan differences over the
importance of bolstering the nation's economy, which were fairly sizable at the
start of last year, have disappeared.
However, far fewer Republicans rate dealing with global
warming, expanding access to health insurance and helping the poor as top
concerns -- and partisan disagreements over the importance of those issues have
increased considerably. Only about a quarter of Republicans (27%) say that
providing health insurance to the uninsured should be a top priority, down 17
points from January 2007. More than twice as many Democrats (65%) and
independents (58%) now rate this as a major policy goal.
There is a similar pattern in views about the importance of
dealing with the problems of the poor and global warming. A year ago, global
warming was the lowest-ranking agenda item for Republicans of 23 issues
mentioned; just 23% viewed it as a top priority. This year, it has fallen even
further -- just 12% of Republicans cite global warming as a top priority, less
than half the proportion naming the next lowest rated issue (27% for providing
health insurance to the uninsured).
Democrats currently are about four times more likely than
Republicans to rate global warming as a major priority (47% vs. 12%), a much
greater gap than in January 2007 (48% Democrat vs. 23% Republican).
The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People
& the Press conducted Jan. 9-13 among 1,515 adults, finds signs of
considerable unease with the nation's economy. In the survey, conducted before
this week's stock market fluctuations, just 26% rate the economy as excellent
or good, while 73% say it is only fair or poor.
While opinions about the economy have not declined since
fall, they are the most negative economic ratings at the beginning of any
presidential year since 1992. In January 2004, 37% had a positive view of the
economy, while 63% expressed a negative opinion.
Most Important Problem
Economic problems now top the public's list of national
concerns, with roughly one-in-three (34%) citing economic problems as the
nation's most grave, compared with 27% who say the war in Iraq is the biggest
problem facing the nation.
This represents a reversal from a year ago, when 42% cited
Iraq as the most important problem in the wake of Bush's proposal to increase
the number of troops there. As recently as September, 37% of Americans cited
Iraq as the nation's biggest problem, nearly double the 20% who cited economic
problems. But current views are more in line with public opinion in 2005 and
2006, when roughly equal numbers cited economic concerns and Iraq as the
nation's biggest problem.
Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to cite the economy
as the nation's greatest problem. Nearly four-in-ten Democrats (39%) list an
economic concern, compared with 27% of Republicans. Democrats are also
substantially more concerned about Iraq than are Republicans (36% vs. 21%). By
contrast, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration,
terrorism and national security as the biggest problems.
While the number of Americans citing the economy as the
nation's largest problem has increased in the past year, it is far from a
record high, even in the post-Iraq era. Over the past two decades, 1992 still
represents the peak public concern about the economy. In January of that year
fully 76% cited an economic problem as the most important facing the nation.
But a more recent peak occurred in the spring of 2003 – just a month after U.S.
forces invaded Iraq. In April of 2003, 41% of Americans saw the economy as the
nation's biggest problem, while just 14% cited the situation in Iraq.
Compared with Republicans, Democrats place much greater
emphasis on jobs, health care, education, the environment, and the poor. On
jobs, for instance, 76% of Democrats but just 43% of Republicans say it should
be a top priority for the president and Congress. Somewhat higher proportions
in each party rate jobs as a top priority than did so in January 2007 (67% of
Democrats, 39% of Republicans).
Notably, 81% of Democrats say that reducing health care
costs should be a top priority for policymakers -- the highest percentage for
any issue mentioned. Only about half of Republicans (53%) view this as a major
Republicans place greater priority on defending the U.S.
against terrorism (86%, vs. 74% for Democrats), dealing with the issue of
illegal immigration (64% vs. 43%), and strengthening the military (62% vs.
37%). For Republicans, illegal immigration ranks as the third leading priority,
after terrorism and the economy. However, while illegal immigration has been a
major issue in the GOP's primary campaign, slightly fewer Republicans rate this
as a top priority than in January 2007 (64% now vs. 69% then).
At the same time, reducing the influence of lobbyists and
special interest groups in Washington is now a much higher priority among
Republicans than it was in January 2007. Roughly four-in-ten Republicans (42%)
say that reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests should be a
top priority, up from 28% a year ago. Republicans are now somewhat more likely
than Democrats to rate this as a major priority; last year, a higher percentage
of Democrats than Republicans said that reining in special interests should be
a top priority.
There is little or no partisan difference on two other
issues: 37% of Democrats and Republicans say that dealing with global trade
should be a top priority, and about half of each group (46% of Republicans and
50% of Democrats) would make a top priority of reducing middle class taxes.
Cross Party Lines
There continues to be a sizable partisan gap in ratings of
the national economy. Currently, 46% of Republicans, but just 24% of
independents and 15% of Democrats, give the economy at least a good rating.
During the 1990s, partisan differences on this question were relatively small
and inconsistent in direction. Beginning in 2002, a substantial party divide
opened up on the question and Democrats and Republicans have remained far apart
in their assessments ever since.
However, the party gap has narrowed somewhat, as increasing
numbers of moderate and liberal Republicans express negative views of the
economy. Over the past four years, conservative Republicans have been more
positive about the economy than their moderate and liberal counterparts, but
the size of this gap has grown. Currently just 29% of moderate-to-liberal Republicans
rate the economy positively; by contrast, a small majority of conservative
Republicans (54%) still do so.
Bush Administration's Legacy
As he begins his final year in office,
President Bush's standing with the public continues to
worsen. While his overall job approval ratings are holding steady, the balance
of opinion is roughly two-to-one negative (31% approve, 59% disapprove). And
the number of Americans – including many within the president's own party – who
see the failures of his administration outweighing the accomplishments
continues to rise, and a record high number say this year's State of the Union
address is less important than in past years.
A 59% majority of Americans believe that, in the long run,
the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh the accomplishments, up
from 53% a year ago. Half as many (28%) say Bush's accomplishments will
outweigh his failures. By comparison, in January 2004 – at the outset of Bush's
re-election campaign – more saw the administrations accomplishments carrying
more weight (49%) than its failures (36%).
This dour view of the Bush presidency stands in contrast to
public sentiment at the same point in Bill Clinton's presidency. In January of
2000, 51% felt the Clinton administrations main legacy would be its
accomplishments, while just 37% said the failures would stand out.
At the time, a quarter of Republicans felt that Clinton's
legacy would be positive, compared with just 9% of Democrats who say the same
about Bush today. And fewer Republicans today (62%) see Bush's accomplishments
standing out compared with Democrats in 2000 (75%). Yet the most striking
difference in views of the two presidents' legacies is among independents. In
January 2000, a majority of independents (53%) said that Clinton's legacy would
be marked by his administration's accomplishments.
Today, by a 64% to 23% margin, most independents say Bush's
legacy will be marked by his administration's failures.
Conservative Republicans continue to say that Bush's
long-term legacy will be positive – 71% say the administration's
accomplishments will outweigh the failures.
But among moderate and liberal Republicans – who make up
roughly a third of the party – just 44% believe Bush's accomplishments will
stand out, while about the same number (43%) say the administration's failures
will stand out. This is a sharp departure from a year ago, when moderate and
liberal Republicans were just as upbeat about Bush's legacy as conservative
the full report at people-press.org